Which spatial discretization for distributed hydrological models? Proposition of a methodology and illustration for medium to large-scale catchments

Distributed hydrological models are valuable tools to derive distributed estimation of water balance components or to study the impact of land-use or climate change on water resources and water quality. In these models, the choice of an appropriate spatial discretization is a crucial issue. It is obviously linked to the available data, their spatial resolution and the dominant hydrological processes. For a given catchment and a given data set, the "optimal" spatial discretization should be adapted to the modelling objectives, as the latter determine the dominant hydrological processes considered in the modelling. For small catchments, landscape heterogeneity can be represented explicitly, whereas for large catchments such fine representation is not feasible and simplification is needed. The question is thus: is it possible to design a flexible methodology to represent landscape heterogeneity efficiently, according to the problem to be solved? This methodology should allow a controlled and objective trade-off between available data, the scale of the dominant water cycle components and the modelling objectives. <br><br> In this paper, we propose a general methodology for such catchment discretization. It is based on the use of nested discretizations. The first level of discretization is composed of the sub-catchments, organised by the river network topology. The sub-catchment variability can be described using a second level of discretizations, which is called hydro-landscape units. This level of discretization is only performed if it is consistent with the modelling objectives, the active hydrological processes and data availability. The hydro-landscapes take into account different geophysical factors such as topography, land-use, pedology, but also suitable hydrological discontinuities such as ditches, hedges, dams, etc. For numerical reasons these hydro-landscapes can be further subdivided into smaller elements that will constitute the modelling units (third level of discretization). <br><br> The first part of the paper presents a review about catchment discretization in hydrological models from which we derived the principles of our general methodology. The second part of the paper focuses on the derivation of hydro-landscape units for medium to large scale catchments. For this sub-catchment discretization, we propose the use of principles borrowed from landscape classification. These principles are independent of the catchment size. They allow retaining suitable features required in the catchment description in order to fulfil a specific modelling objective. The method leads to unstructured and homogeneous areas within the sub-catchments, which can be used to derive modelling meshes. It avoids map smoothing by suppressing the smallest units, the role of which can be very important in hydrology, and provides a confidence map (the distance map) for the classification. The confidence map can be used for further uncertainty analysis of modelling results. The final discretization remains consistent with the resolution of input data and that of the source maps. The last part of the paper illustrates the method using available data for the upper Saône catchment in France. The interest of the method for an efficient representation of landscape heterogeneity is illustrated by a comparison with more traditional mapping approaches. Examples of possible models, which can be built on this spatial discretization, are finally given as perspectives for the work

A modeling approach to assess the hydrological response of small mediterranean catchments to the variability of soil characteristics in a context of extreme events

This paper presents a modeling study aiming at quantifying the possible impact of soil characteristics on the hydrological response of small ungauged catchments in a context of extreme events. The study focuses on the September 2002 event in the Gard region (South-Eastern France), which led to catastrophic flash-floods. The proposed modeling approach is able to take into account rainfall variability and soil profiles variability. Its spatial discretization is determined using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and a soil map. The model computes infiltration, ponding and vertical soil water distribution, as well as river discharge. In order to be applicable to ungauged catchments, the model is set up without any calibration and the soil parameter specification is based on an existing soil database. The model verification is based on a regional evaluation using 17 estimated discharges obtained from an extensive post-flood investigation. Thus, this approach provides a spatial view of the hydrological response across a large range of scales. To perform the simulations, radar rainfall estimations are used at a 1 km<sup>2</sup> and 5 min resolution. To specify the soil hydraulic properties, two types of pedotransfer function (PTF) are compared. It is shown that the PTF including information about soil structure reflects better the spatial variability that can be encountered in the field. The study is focused on four small ungauged catchments of less than 10 km<sup>2</sup>, which experienced casualties. Simulated specific peak discharges are found to be in agreement with estimations from a post-event in situ investigation. Examining the dynamics of simulated infiltration and saturation degrees, two different behaviors are shown which correspond to different runoff production mechanisms that could be encountered within catchments of less than 10 km<sup>2</sup>. They produce simulated runoff coefficients that evolve in time and highlight the variability of the infiltration capacity of the various soil types. Therefore, we propose a cartography distinguishing between areas prone to saturation excess and areas prone only to infiltration excess mechanisms. The questions raised by this modeling study will be useful to improve field observations, aiming at better understanding runoff generation for these extreme events and examine the possibility for early warning, even in very small ungauged catchments

Magnetization steps in a diluted Heisenberg antiferromagnetic chain: Theory and experiments on TMMC:Cd

A theory for the equilibrium low-temperature magnetization M of a diluted Heisenberg antiferromagnetic chain is presented. The magnetization curve, M versus B, is calculated using the exact contributions of finite chains with 1 to 5 spins, and the "rise and ramp approximation" for longer chains. Some non-equilibrium effects that occur in a rapidly changing B, are also considered. Specific non-equilibrium models based on earlier treatments of the phonon bottleneck, and of spin flips associated with cross relaxation and with level crossings, are discussed. Magnetization data on powders of TMMC diluted with cadmium [i.e., (CH_3)_4NMn_xCd_(1-x)Cl_3, with 0.16<=x<=0.50 were measured at 0.55 K in 18 T superconducting magnets. The field B_1 at the first MST from pairs is used to determine the NN exchange constant, J, which changes from -5.9 K to -6.5 K as x increases from 0.16 to 0.50. The magnetization curves obtained in the superconducting magnets are compared with simulations based on the equilibrium theory. Data for the differential susceptibility, dM/dB, were taken in pulsed magnetic fields (7.4 ms duration) up to 50 T, with the powder samples in a 1.5 K liquid-helium bath. Non-equilibrium effects, which became more severe as x decreased, were observed. The non-equilibrium effects are tentatively interpreted using the "Inadequate Heat Flow Scenario," or to cross-relaxation, and crossings of energy levels, including those of excited states.Comment: 16 pages, 14 figure

Third-Line Nivolumab Monotherapy in Recurrent Small Cell Lung Cancer : CheckMate 032

Introduction: For patients with recurrent SCLC, topotecan remains the only approved second-line treatment, and the outcomes are poor. CheckMate 032 is a phase 1/2, multicenter, open-label study of nivolumab or nivolumab plus ipilimumab in SCLC or other advanced/metastatic solid tumors previously treated with one or more platinum-based chemotherapies. We report results of third- or later-line nivolumab monotherapy treatment in SCLC. Methods: In this analysis, patients with limited-stage or extensive-stage SCLC and disease progression after two or more chemotherapy regimens received nivolumab monotherapy, 3 mg/kg every 2 weeks, until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary end point was objective response rate. Secondary end points included duration of response, progression-free survival, overall survival, and safety. Results: Between December 4, 2013, and November 30, 2016, 109 patients began receiving third- or later-line nivolumab monotherapy. At a median follow-up of 28.3 months (from first dose to database lock), the objective response rate was 11.9% (95% confidence interval: 6.5\u201319.5) with a median duration of response of 17.9 months (range 3.0\u201342.1). At 6 months, 17.2% of patients were progression-free. The 12-month and 18-month overall survival rates were 28.3% and 20.0%, respectively. Grade 3 to 4 treatment-related adverse events occurred in 11.9% of patients. Three patients (2.8%) discontinued because of treatment-related adverse events. Conclusions: Nivolumab monotherapy provided durable responses and was well tolerated as a third- or later-line treatment for recurrent SCLC. These results suggest that nivolumab monotherapy is an effective third- or later-line treatment for this patient population

Weighing the prognostic role of hyponatremia in hospitalized patients with metastatic solid tumors: the HYPNOSIS study

Previous works linked low sodium concentration with mortality risk in cancer. We aimed at weighing the prognostic impact of hyponatremia in all consecutive patients with metastatic solid tumors admitted in a two-years period at our medical oncology department. Patients were included in two cohorts based on serum sodium concentration on admission. A total of 1025 patients were included, of whom 279 (27.2%) were found to be hyponatremic. The highest prevalence of hyponatremia was observed in biliary tract (51%), prostate (45%) and small-cell lung cancer (38.9%). With a median follow-up of 26.9 months, median OS was 2 months and 13.2 months for the hyponatremia versus control cohort, respectively (HR, 2.65; P &lt; 0.001). In the multivariable model, hyponatremia was independently associated with poorer OS (HR, 1.66; P &lt; 0.001). According to the multivariable model, a nomogram system was developed and validated in an external set of patients. We weighed over time the influence of hyponatremia on survival of patients with metastatic solid tumors and pointed out the possibility to exploit serum sodium assessment to design integrated prognostic tools. Our study also highlights the need for a deeper characterization of the biological role of extracellular sodium levels in tumor development and progression

How does initial soil moisture influence the hydrological response? A case study from southern France

The Cévennes–Vivarais region in southern France is prone to heavy rainfall that can lead to flash floods which are one of the most hazardous natural risks in Europe. The results of numerous studies show that besides rainfall and physical catchment characteristics the catchment's initial soil moisture also impacts the hydrological response to rain events. The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between catchment mean initial soil moisture θ̃ini and the hydrological response that is quantified using the event-based runoff coefficient ϕev in the two nested catchments of the Gazel (3.4&thinsp;km2) and the Claduègne (43&thinsp;km2). Thus, the objectives are twofold: (1) obtaining meaningful estimates of soil moisture at catchment scale from a dense network of in situ measurements and (2) using this estimate of θ̃ini to analyze its relation with ϕev calculated for many runoff events. A sampling setup including 45 permanently installed frequency domain reflectancy probes that continuously measure soil moisture at three depths is applied. Additionally, on-alert surface measurements at ≈10 locations in each one of 11 plots are conducted. Thus, catchment mean soil moisture can be confidently assessed with a standard error of the mean of ≤1.7&thinsp;vol&thinsp;% over a wide range of soil moisture conditions. The ϕev is calculated from high-resolution discharge and precipitation data for several rain events with a cumulative precipitation Pcum ranging from less than 5&thinsp;mm to more than 80&thinsp;mm. Because of the high uncertainty of ϕev associated with the hydrograph separation method, ϕev is calculated with several methods, including graphical methods, digital filters and a tracer-based method. The results indicate that the hydrological response depends on θ̃ini: during dry conditions ϕev is consistently below 0.1, even for events with high and intense precipitation. Above a threshold of θ̃ini=34&thinsp;vol&thinsp;% ϕev can reach values up to 0.99 but there is a high scatter. Some variability can be explained with a weak correlation of ϕev with Pcum and rain intensity, but a considerable part of the variability remains unexplained. It is concluded that threshold-based methods can be helpful to prevent overestimation of the hydrological response during dry catchment conditions. The impact of soil moisture on the hydrological response during wet catchment conditions, however, is still insufficiently understood and cannot be generalized based on the present results.</p